And the winner is ...

I am now prepared to declare that the winner in the 2008 presidential election is John McCain. If you’re an old line Conservative like me, this is not to be met with cheers and confetti. I’m not writing this to promote his candidacy (partly because no one reads this currently); my preference would have been vice-president-elect Rice. I just want to get on record so that I can look prescient in November 2008, and maybe get quoted in one of the real blogs.

 

I would not have made this prediction six months ago, especially after he refused to use his Viet Nam veteran bully pulpit to savage Mr. Winter Soldier. There are enough issues where the senator from the media has turned on his own party (especially Campaign Finance Reform) that I would have said at that time that the Conservative base would never allow him to get the nomination. Some things have become apparent during the Roberts hearings that change that equation.

 

Immediately after he brokered the Gang of Fourteen compromise on judicial filibusters, I was distinctly unimpressed. It looked like he had given away the Constitutional Option in exchange for a vague commitment from the Democratic compromisers to exercise judgment in deciding whether to filibuster judicial nominees. Shortly thereafter, though, Sen. McCain made a statement suggesting that he would hold those judgments to an objective standard, and wouldn’t simply accept “oh, we judged for ourselves that this nominee is an extreme circumstance.” In fact, the only time we have heard the word “filibuster” since John Roberts’ appointment was when Sen. Biden attempted a zinger at Roberts for following the “Ginsburg rule”. This was the point when I realized that Sen. McCain had effectively shut down the Democrats’ filibuster game, guaranteeing that President Bush owes him for each and every nominee from here on out, especially Supreme Court nominees.

 

Republican politicians, if not activists, also owe McCain immeasurably for the once hated Campaign Finance Reform. This, too, was late in becoming apparent. During the past election cycle, we saw Democrats out-raising Republicans in even-softer-money from the 527 groups by as much as eight-to-one. We all cried loud and long about this, when we couldn’t see the huge price Democrats would pay for this fleeting advantage. Now we can see powerful, senior Democrats “following Nan Aron of a cliff,” eyes wide open, because, absent the old-fashioned soft money contributions from “corporate fat cats,” they just can’t do without the money from the extreme left-wing 527 groups. The Democrats know they can’t beat Roberts (in other circumstances, they might not even want to), but for the sake of their sponsors, they have no choice but to throw up futile, indecorous obstructions. It was just this behavior that doomed Tom Daschle’s campaign last year. And for this, Republican Party leaders are in debt to John McCain and CFR.

 

No other prominent Republican can point to political accomplishments like this, except for Bush who is term-limited, Cheney who is uninterested, and Giuliani, who is pro-abortion. And no other politician is as accomplished at collecting interest on political debts as Sen. McCain. Expect the first endorsements shortly after the GOP seats 58 senators next January.